According to a series of 100 Diamond Mind simulations of the 2007 season with current rosters and CHONE (Comprehensive Holistic Objective Numerical Estimations) projections for the season, the New York Yankees have a 73.5% chance of winning the division while the Red Sox are the wild card favorites with a 23% chance of winning the additional playoff birth.
CHONE predictions are created by Sean Smith at the Anaheim Angels all the way blog. His predictions for hitters statistics correlate at a very strong 66% over a 500 AB season. I plan on taking a look at each of the projection systems and their forecasting of the 2007 Red Sox roster a little later in the offseason once all of them are available. But since SG at the RLYW already did the Diamond Mind projections using the CHONE data, I figured I would present that here. For the full Yankees projections, visit this post at RLYW.
Here are some quick thoughts about the CHONE projections for the Boston Red Sox in 2007:
- On average pitching forecasts correlate with actual performance with a 40% to 50% rate and hitting between 65% and 75%. It is much easier to forecast hitters than pitchers. In fact, Bill James doesn’t believe in pitching forecasting.
- CHONE’s projections of Daisuke Matsuzaka jump right out at you. If Matsuzaka were to post a 3.46 ERA over 187 innings pitched, I think it would be fair to expect an 18 win season from him and anoint him the ace of the Red Sox staff. Compare his forecast to the following pitchers (ERA/IP/SO/BB): Zito (3.88/206/166/79), Clemens (3.46/172/134/54), Santana (2.76/212/233/42), Halladay (3.66/177/116/32). I think that puts Matsuzaka in the elite level of starting pitchers in baseball.
- Papelbon’s transition to the starting rotation forecasts out to be a good move, although it is hard to know how this would have looked if forecast as a closer.
- If I had to choose a closer out of this bunch, I couldn’t.
- For comparison, here is Chad Cordero (3.71/75/70/23). Good control, high K rates. It looks to me like reliever ERA’s are slightly forecast slightly higher than they would actually turn out (my guess is this has something to do with inherited runners scoring not counting against their ERA but I am not sure).
- What can you say about Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz projections? They look good, what we expect, and quite frankly what the Red Sox need to get out of them to be successful.
- CHONE’s forecast for J.D. Drew have the same lack of power that his PECOTA projections showed, which is concerning given his salary. But look at his rate stats and you can see why Theo is so high on Drew in this lineup. Looking at his .405 OBP, it is tempting to push him up to 2nd in the lineup before Ortiz and Ramirez instead of behind them.
- This team could hit alot of doubles and string together some big innings.
Overall, this set of standings and projections sets an expectation, but one would hope that this ended up a little on the conservative side.