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According to a series of 100 Diamond Mind simulations of the 2007 season with current rosters and CHONE (Comprehensive Holistic Objective Numerical Estimations) projections for the season, the New York Yankees have a 73.5% chance of winning the division while the Red Sox are the wild card favorites with a 23% chance of winning the additional playoff birth.

Early 2007 Projections

CHONE predictions are created by Sean Smith at the Anaheim Angels all the way blog. His predictions for hitters statistics correlate at a very strong 66% over a 500 AB season. I plan on taking a look at each of the projection systems and their forecasting of the 2007 Red Sox roster a little later in the offseason once all of them are available. But since SG at the RLYW already did the Diamond Mind projections using the CHONE data, I figured I would present that here. For the full Yankees projections, visit this post at RLYW.

2007 Red Sox projections: CHONE
2007 Red Sox projections pitchers: CHONE

Here are some quick thoughts about the CHONE projections for the Boston Red Sox in 2007:

  • On average pitching forecasts correlate with actual performance with a 40% to 50% rate and hitting between 65% and 75%. It is much easier to forecast hitters than pitchers. In fact, Bill James doesn’t believe in pitching forecasting.
  • CHONE’s projections of Daisuke Matsuzaka jump right out at you. If Matsuzaka were to post a 3.46 ERA over 187 innings pitched, I think it would be fair to expect an 18 win season from him and anoint him the ace of the Red Sox staff. Compare his forecast to the following pitchers (ERA/IP/SO/BB): Zito (3.88/206/166/79), Clemens (3.46/172/134/54), Santana (2.76/212/233/42), Halladay (3.66/177/116/32). I think that puts Matsuzaka in the elite level of starting pitchers in baseball.
  • Papelbon’s transition to the starting rotation forecasts out to be a good move, although it is hard to know how this would have looked if forecast as a closer.
  • If I had to choose a closer out of this bunch, I couldn’t.
  • For comparison, here is Chad Cordero (3.71/75/70/23). Good control, high K rates. It looks to me like reliever ERA’s are slightly forecast slightly higher than they would actually turn out (my guess is this has something to do with inherited runners scoring not counting against their ERA but I am not sure).
  • What can you say about Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz projections? They look good, what we expect, and quite frankly what the Red Sox need to get out of them to be successful.
  • CHONE’s forecast for J.D. Drew have the same lack of power that his PECOTA projections showed, which is concerning given his salary. But look at his rate stats and you can see why Theo is so high on Drew in this lineup. Looking at his .405 OBP, it is tempting to push him up to 2nd in the lineup before Ortiz and Ramirez instead of behind them.
  • This team could hit alot of doubles and string together some big innings.

Overall, this set of standings and projections sets an expectation, but one would hope that this ended up a little on the conservative side.


9 Responses to “The Yankees Win the East?”

  1. on 02 Jan 2007 at 5:05 pm Ian

    Forgot what the computer predictions say, the Sox will win the East by 3 games.

  2. on 02 Jan 2007 at 9:43 pm mattymatty

    Since when is a .500 Slugging Pct. a lack of power? Drew’s predicted slugging percentage seems fine to me. II think the predictions undershoot what I would hope to get out of Manny. Also, one would hope that Schilling and Beckett (but especially Curt) would be better than that. I think for the Sox to win the division, Schilling (or Beckett) has to pitch like Schilling circa ‘04.

    I’m with Ian. Sox win the division.

  3. on 03 Jan 2007 at 12:38 am Mike Edelman

    Looks like those simulations don’t include Okajima or a closer. I believe the same simulation predicted the Red Sox to win the AL East last year though once they acquired Crisp. So I really wouldn’t take it to heart.

  4. on 03 Jan 2007 at 8:51 am Tim Daloisio

    Mike…I agree with you here..these predictions are in general about as good as flipping a coin. But interesting none the less. I like the fact that these projections and this team still has us with a solid chance at the playoffs. As you point out, there are still holes to fill that will be filled and no Donnelly, Romero, or Okajima on this roster.

    mattmatty…I thought the same thing when I wrote that, but can you tell me where that SLG % comes from? 19 home runs and 30 doubles. Somehow that doesn’t feel like a .500+ SLG. I have a feeling that (if we see Drew in a Sox uniform after all) Drew will mystify us much of the year with performance that is across the board more valuable than he appears at face value.

    If he can get on base 40% of the time…I have to consider pushing him up to 2 in the lineup ahead of Ortiz and Manny.

  5. on 03 Jan 2007 at 9:45 am Paul Tedford (Gentle GM)

    I hope these type of projections are what the odd-setters in Vegas use. If so, I’m betting the house that Oakland doesn’t win 91 games, the Dodgers finish above the Giants, and the Angels win the division. : )

  6. on 12 Nov 2008 at 4:46 pm Kieth Raymond



  7. on 23 Jan 2011 at 10:49 am gsmserver

    Посмотрел. Хоть и на english, но интересно. Спасибо.

  8. on 24 Jan 2011 at 11:30 am семена конопли

    ни странички не пропустим

  9. on 17 Oct 2011 at 5:51 am selena

    где взять семена марихуаны у любого мента спроси!

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