Coming off the high of what most people around baseball dubbed a successful winter meetings, Theo Epstein and company must have felt pretty good about where they stood in this offseason’s quest to put a better club on the field and compete for a World Series in 2007. Unfortunately, a few unsuccessful days attempting to acquire or sign a closer worthy of stepping into Jonathon Papelbon’s shoes have begun to put a chink in that solid hot stove grade.

Through it all, the signing of Daisuske Matsuzaka was a given, and that alone pretty much guaranteed that Theo’s offseason grade couldn’t slip too far. Even if he had found suitors for Manny Ramirez, all would be forgiven when #18 and a horde of Japanese media swarmed Fenway Park next year. But word circulating the baseball world today is that with little over four days left to negotiate, the Red Sox and Matsuzaka represented by his agent Scott Boras are oceans apart.

“Negotiations between the Red Soxand Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka have essentially broken down, a source familiar with the talks said late last night, adding that unless there is an abrupt change of course, Matsuzaka will not be signing with the Red Sox before Thursday’s midnight deadline.

Attempts to reach Matsuzaka’s agent, Scott Boras, were unsuccessful last night. However, the well-placed source blamed Boras for stubbornly being unable to get over the flaws in the Japanese posting system, saying that he has been unwilling to negotiate and that he has acted disinterested in even making a deal.” - Michael Silverman, Boston Herald

Fifty-one million dollars doesn’t go as far as you might have thought. In fact, it might not be going anywhere at all, let alone to the Seibu Lions if this report is true.

According to Peter Gammons, both Matsuzaka and the Seibu Lions might be better off financially in the long term should they not agree to terms below what they are asking for now;

“Boras insists he does not have to bring the 26-year-old right-hander to Boston this week. Boras claims that he is “arguably one of the five best starting pitchers in the game and should be paid accordingly, especially coming off of this market.” In Boras’s mind, that fair market price is $20 million, not that he’s asking for it because of the posting system. But Boras also claims that Matsuzaka can get $15-18 million pitching in Japan, that Seibu can get a lot more than $51.1 million next year and that Boston can write off most of the posting costs with marketing and the exclusion of the luxury tax. While Boras remains adament in asking for close to a Jason Schmidt average annual value, Red Sox officials feel that the superagent prefers to keep Matsuzaka in Japan for two more years, then get $140 million for seven years after 2008.”

Both sides are clearly motivated to get this deal done now given the amount of press it has received here and abroad.  Matsuzaka has said his goodbyes to the Seibu fans and would face a great deal of shame should he return next season with money as the only reason he didn’t fulfill his Major League dreams.  But at the same time, both sides are not motivated to budge far off their initial asks.

Boston feels like the $51.1 million dollar posting fee gives them leverage above and beyond that of a true free agent, while Boras and his client can hold on to the fact that there is more money long term if they hold out for it.  I think this deal would get done if the talks started to enter the $13 million dollar a year range for five or six years.

But given that both sides are apparently not speaking at this hour and the deadline for negotiations only four days and change away, its hard to be optimistic.

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