A Look at Akinori Iwamura

November 9th, 2006 by Tim Daloisio

With all the hype surrounding the posting of Seibu Lions pitcher Diasuke Matsuzaka, its another potential Japanese import that may be more likely to end up in a Red Sox uniform in 2007. Akinori Iwamura, the 27 year-old third baseman of the Yakult Swallows, was posted with a 5 pm Friday deadline for bids to negotiate with him.

At 5 foot 9 inches and 175 pounds, Iwamura packs some power into his small frame. With a reputation for aggressive play in the field and behind the plate, Iwamura has hit 106 home runs in the past three seasons for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and boasts a career batting average around .300 and five Gold Gloves at third base.

How does that translate to the Major Leagues? While forecasting the Major League Baseball success of Japanese professionals is not an exact science, you can get a good idea of the upper and lower ranges of a players possible performance when crossing the Pacific.

Jeff Sackmann at the Harball Times takes a detailed look at projecting Iwamura’s potential impact in MLB next season. At the upper end of his projections, Iwamura could be a .300 hitter with 20-25 home runs and an OPS of .800+. More likely Iwamura will approximate Mike Lowell’s performance last season when Lowell hit .284 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI with an .814 OPS. At 27, Iwamura should be able to put up those numbers for a three or four year period.

With Lowell, on the last year of his contract, set to make $9 million this year with rumored interest from other teams, it makes sense that the Red Sox might be interested in a cheaper, similar alternative who could be controlled for a few more years. According to Nick Cafardo:

“Iwamura will likely require a contract in the $4 million-$5 million range per season.”

Iwamura’s post is expected to be around $4 million dollars, which when combined with a 3 year, $4 million dollar per year deal brings his effective cost to $5.3 million per year. If they can trade Lowell without having to eat much, if any, of his $9 million dollars this year, Iwamura may very well be the best option on the market to replace him.